The University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School has determined that the House Republican’s proposed tax bill will cost $1.75 trillion over the next decade
In an analysis released on Monday, the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model determined the $1.41 trillion price tag originally estimated by the Joint Committee on Taxation fell short of the actual cost of the proposed GOP tax bill. The report also tracks estimated long term shortfalls of an additional $4.39 trillion between now and 2040.
The difference between the two models stems from the Penn Wharton model predicting a greater loss of revenue as its estimate is based on total household units and “rapid demographic changes over the next several years and decades.” The Joint Committee on Taxation uses total number of tax filers instead, and will be used by Senate Republicans to try passing the proposed changes as a “reconciliation bill.”
Under Senate rules, a reconciliation bill cannot add to the deficit after 10 years, which will cap the total cost at about $1.5 trillion. The Penn Wharton Budget Model score, if applied, would mean the Senate will need 60 votes instead of a simple majority to pass their tax bill. In that scenario, the GOP would need at least 8 Democrats (and independents) to also support the bill.
Meanwhile, many influential members of the GOP have already come out against the tax bill they just wrote. Senators Bob Corker, John McCain, and Jeff Flake have all said they won’t vote for any tax reform bill that adds once cent to the deficit.
Susan Collins (R- ME) has come out against eliminating the estate tax and state and local tax deductions. And Rand Paul (R- KY) is also threatening to vote against it unless it eliminates the individual mandate.
Even the first daughter Ivanka Trump is unhappy with the plan because it doesn’t include the child tax credit expansion she had been pushing for behind the scenes.